ETHUSD is currently in a corrective phase after a strong rally, making Fibonacci retracement and classical support–resistance (SNR) levels very relevant for planning the next trades. Recent price behavior around the 3,000–3,500 USD zone shows that Ethereum is consolidating inside a broader uptrend with clear reaction zones that traders can use as decision points.[1][2]
Market Context for ETHUSD
Ethereum has recently pulled back from a major swing high near the 4,000 USD area toward the 3,000 USD region, forming a corrective leg after a bullish impulse.[1] Forecast and prediction data for late 2025 still suggest that ETH is pricing in a positive long‑term outlook, with many projections clustering around the low‑3,000 to high‑3,000 range.[2][3] This combination of a corrective pullback inside a constructive long‑term bias is ideal for applying Fibonacci retracement and SNR methods.
Key Fibonacci Retracement Levels
For this idea, assume the recent swing high around 4,000 USD and swing low near 3,000 USD as the main Fibonacci anchors on the ETHUSD chart.[1] From this move, the approximate Fibonacci retracement levels are: 23.6% near 3,236 USD, 38.2% around 3,382 USD, 50% around 3,500 USD, and 61.8% near 3,618 USD.[1] These levels act as potential inflection zones where price often pauses, reverses, or accelerates.
On a typical TradingView chart of ETHUSD, price has been gravitating around the 38.2% and 50% retracement band, confirming this area as a fair‑value zone inside the current correction.[1][4] When multiple candles wick into the same Fibonacci levels and reject them, it strengthens their significance as either support or resistance.
Support and Resistance Structure
The 3,000 USD region aligns with the recent swing low and forms a major horizontal support, where buyers previously stepped in aggressively.[1][5] Slightly above, the 3,300–3,380 USD band acts as an intermediate support zone, overlapping with the 38.2% Fibonacci level and validating it as a key decision area for dip buyers.[1][5]
On the upside, the 3,500 USD area around the 50% retracement has behaved as a local resistance where previous rallies stalled and supply emerged.[1][4] Beyond that, the 3,620–3,650 USD region near the 61.8% retracement is a stronger resistance cluster, and a break above it would greatly increase the probability of a retest of the 4,000 USD swing high.[1][4]
Bullish Trading Scenario
A primary bullish idea is to look for long setups if ETHUSD successfully defends the 38.2% Fibonacci level near 3,382 USD and shows rejection candles or bullish patterns in this zone.[1] In this case, a conservative entry plan is: buy near 3,350–3,380 USD after confirmation, place a stop‑loss below the 3,300 USD support, and aim for targets around 3,500 USD (50% retracement) and 4,000 USD (previous swing high).[1][5]
More aggressive bulls can also consider a breakout‑retest strategy above the 3,500 USD resistance, waiting for a confirmed close above this level followed by a pullback that holds it as new support.[1][4] If this retest holds, upside targets extend first toward 3,620–3,650 USD (61.8% Fibonacci) and later toward a full recovery back to 4,000 USD or slightly higher extension levels.
Bearish Trading Scenario
A bearish scenario becomes more probable if ETHUSD fails to hold above the 50% retracement and closes decisively below 3,500 USD after a rejection from that zone.[1] In that case, two ideas emerge: short‑term shorts back into the 3,380 USD area, and more extended moves targeting a deeper retest of the 3,000 USD swing low if the 38.2% level also breaks.[1][5]
A more aggressive bearish plan is to short a clean breakdown below 3,300–3,350 USD, where the chart would likely show increasing downside momentum and a loss of key support.[1][4] Here, stop‑loss can be placed just above the broken support, with profit targets staged near 3,100–3,050 USD first and then the 3,000 USD psychological level, which remains a major demand zone.
Confluence and Trade Filtering
The highest‑probability trades come when Fibonacci retracement levels overlap with classical horizontal support–resistance zones and dynamic factors such as moving averages or volume spikes.[1][4] For ETHUSD, the confluence between the 38.2% retracement and an established support band around 3,350–3,380 USD offers an attractive area to filter long setups, especially if oscillators show oversold or recovering momentum.
On the resistance side, the confluence between the 61.8% retracement and the prior supply area around 3,620–3,650 USD serves as a natural profit‑taking zone for longs and a potential ambush point for counter‑trend shorts.[1] Waiting for clear candlestick signals and respecting the direction of the broader trend on higher time frames helps avoid low‑quality, sideways trades around these levels.[4]
Risk Management and Time Frames
Regardless of direction, risk per trade should remain a small fraction of total trading capital, because cryptocurrencies like ETH can show sudden volatility spikes driven by news or broader market sentiment.[6] Using the Fibonacci structure, traders can define relatively tight stops just beyond invalidation levels, such as below 3,300 USD for longs from the 38.2% zone or above recent highs for shorts from resistance.[1][5]
Higher‑time‑frame charts (4H and Daily) provide the structural Fibonacci and SNR map, while lower‑time‑frame charts (15M–1H) can be used to refine entries with patterns such as double bottoms, break‑and‑retest moves, or momentum breakouts.[4] Aligning both time frames helps traders stay with the dominant trend while still achieving favorable risk‑reward ratios on individual setups.
Conclusion of the Trading Idea
ETHUSD currently offers a well‑defined technical environment where Fibonacci retracement and support–resistance levels frame clear bullish and bearish paths for traders.[1][5] By focusing on the 3,350–3,380 USD support band, the 3,500 USD pivot, and the 3,620–3,650 USD resistance cluster, traders can structure entries, stops, and profit targets in a disciplined, rules‑based manner within the broader Ethereum trend.[1][2]
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